Chinese Oil Market - December - Dec 17, 2011
The Chinese market has been a little quiet after some sharp decreases late October and into early November. It is felt that many products are at the lower end of the price cycle which is driven by both the seasonality of the product, the current good supply and the early Chinese New Year (late January), however even the most optimistic are suggesting it's unlikely to last into Q2 2012.
Over the past 12 months Gum Turpentine has fallen by over 50% resulting in many aromachemical prices to soften. Again this is likely to remain the case into the New Year.
Eucalyptus prices fell in November but have climbed 10% in December. The net effect over the last quarter has still been a decrease but the market remains volatile.
Citronella prices have followed the Indonesian price movements and have fallen 10-15% in the past month however after a poor production period it's unlikely to remain as competitive after the Chinese New Year. Star Anise and Litsea also fell 10% in November but have remained unchanged during December.
Geranium prices fell dramatically over the past couple of months trying to catch up with the Egyptian prices that started to fall around August time. History may be the best judge of where prices will go in 2012 as we may not have yet witnessed the bottom of this price curve but we have seen before and recently that this can change very quickly.
You can see the Chinese seem to be now market followers. It wasn't so long since China were the ones leading the price changes!!
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